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UFC 98 Picks

UFC 98 is this Saturday, live from Las Vegas, NV. In the main event, Lyoto Machida will attempt to take the UFC Light-Heavyweight title from “Sugar” Rashad Evans. The co-main event will feature former longtime UFC Welterweight Champion Matt Hughes in a huge grudge match with The Ultimate Fighter season four winner and former UFC Welterweight Champion Matt “The Terror” Serra. The rest of the card is made up of mostly solid fights. Here are my picks for the televised main card winners, along with a few notes on each fight, including the results from today’s weigh-ins.

• UFC Light-Heavyweight Champion Rashad Evans (205) vs. Lyoto Machida (204): Machida (14-0) comes in to UFC 98 riding a wave of popularity that he has not experienced thus far in his career. There were many questions leading into his UFC 94 encounter with Thiago Silva, as he did not have many decisive finishes on his undefeated record. “The Dragon” seemed to answer those critics with a 1^st round KO of Silva. Evans (18-0-1) is the underdog by most accounts, but there are two elements of Evans’ game that will give him the victory: his game plan and his killer instinct. Evans’ trainer, Greg Jackson, is one of the finest strategists in MMA, and will have Evans’ prepared to exploit Machida’s weaknesses. Think of what Keith Jardine did to Chuck Liddell; Jackson is his trainer, and crafted the game plan. In addition, look at some of Evans’ UFC finishes: his brutal head kick of Sean Salmon, his vicious overhand right on Chuck Liddell’s face, his ground and pound that made Forrest Griffin’s head bounce around like a bobble-head doll. Machida does not have that same killer instinct. Evans will finish Machida by ground and pound in the 4^th round, retaining his title and blemishing Machida’s record for the first time.
• Matt Serra (171) vs. Matt Hughes (170): This fight is a grudge match that has been building since these two were on opposite teams as the coaches on The Ultimate Fighter season six. Serra (16-5) is looking to send Hughes (43-7) into purported retirement, and shut his mouth in the process. Who is really the good guy and who is really the bad guy in this feud? The answer is a matter of one’s opinion, but there is no question that it’s a very interesting match-up. Neither fighter is in the UFC welterweight title picture right now, and both have been reported as considering retirement, so this may be the last time we see one or both of these celebrated athletes. However, while it’s an interesting fight with possible long-term consequences, I do not expect it to be an exciting fight. Hughes will utilize his renowned wrestling to ground and pound his grappling counterpart, and Terra simply won’t have the answer. He will be able to avoid enough damage to keep from being stopped, but I predict a unanimous decision victory for the farm boy, Matt Hughes.
• Dan Miller (185) vs. Chael Sonnen (186): Miller (11-1) is undefeated in the UFC, sporting a 3-0 record. He will mix it up with the returning Chael Sonnen (22-10-1), who is coming off a triangle choke submission loss to Damian Maia at UFC 95. Miller is known for his submission games, with the majority of his victories coming by tap-out, while Sonnen possesses a superior wrestling base. Miller is riding a wave of momentum right now, and I expect that it will carry him to victory over the experience of Sonnen. Sonnen has also shown a propensity for being submitted, and I believe Miller will capitalize, gaining the victory by tap-out in the 2^nd round.
• Drew McFedries (185) vs. Xavier Foupa-Pokam (186): This may be a possible eliminator match, as both McFedries (7-5) and Foupa-Pokam (20-10) have been rumored to be in danger of being cut from the UFC. McFedries, known as “The Massacre,” has had a very up-and-down tenure with the top MMA promotion in the world, building a record of 3-4. He has lost his last two fights, and is closer to being cut than his opponent. Foupa-Pokam came into the UFC with a reputation for finishing fights, but he came up short in a lackluster unanimous decision loss to Denis Kang at UFC 97. Wanting to erase the memories of that performance, he jumped at the chance to face another fighter known for his finishing style, and the results should be a very short but entertaining bout. I have been pretty underwhelmed by McFedries, and I expect Foupa-Pokam to right the wrongs of his last performance, gaining the 1^st round KO victory.
• Sean Sherk (156) vs. Frankie Edgar (155): This fight definitely has the potential for Fight of the Night honors, as both Sherk (33-3-1) and Edgar (9-1) are known for their entertaining bouts. Sherk is attempting to build his way back to a title shot against the winner of the upcoming B.J. Penn-Kenny Florian lightweight title match. Edgar, on the other hand, has yet to get his shot at the belt, and is hoping to use Sherk as a stepping stone. This fight is between two fighters who utilize wrestling as their base, but Sherk is better at it, and more well-rounded overall. People seems to forget, but Sherk has only three losses on his record, and they are to Matt Hughes in his prime, current welterweight champ Georges St-Pierre, and current lightweight strap-holder Penn. His experience and dominant striking will be the difference, and will garner Sherk the unanimous decision victory.